## Monday, March 21, 2016

### Roll Your Own II: Bayes Factors With Null Intervals

The Bayes factors we develop compare the null model to an alternative model.  This null model is almost always a single point---the true effect is identically zero.    People sometimes confuse our advocacy for Bayes factor with that for point-null-hypothesis testing.  They even critique Bayes factor with the Cohenesque claim that the point null is never true.

Bayes factor is a general way of measuring the strength of evidence from data for competing models.  It is not tied to the point null.

We develop for the point null because we think it is a useful, plausible, theoretically meaningful model.  Others might disagree, and these disagreements are welcome as part of the exchange of viewpoints in science.

In the blog post Roll Your Own: How to Compute Bayes Factors for Your Priors, I provided R code to compute a Bayes factor between a point-null and a user-specified alternative for a simple setup motivated by the one-sample t-test.  I was heartened by the reception and I hope a few of you are using the code (or the comparable code provided by Richard Morey).  There have been some requests to generalize the code for non-point nulls.  Here, let's explore the Bayes factor for any two models in a simple setup.  As it turns out, the generalization is instructive and computationally trivial.   We have all we need from the previous posts.

### Using Interval Nulls: An Example

Consider the following two possibilities:

I. Perhaps you feel the point null is too constrained and would rather adopt a null model with mass on a small region around zero rather than at the point.  John Kruschke calls these regions ROPEs (regions of posterior equivalence).

II. Perhaps you are more interested in the direciton in an effect rather than whether it is zero or not.  In this case, you might consider testing two one-sided models against each other.

For this blog, I am going to retain four different priors. Let’s start with a data model. Data are independent normal draws with mean $$\mu$$ and variance $$\sigma^2$$. It is more convenient re-express the normal as a function of effect size, $$\delta$$ and $$\sigma^2$$ where $$\delta=\mu/\sigma)$$. Here is the formal specification:
$Y_i \mid \delta,\sigma^2 \stackrel{iid}{\sim} \mbox{Normal}(\sigma\delta,\sigma^2).$
Now, the substantive positions as prior models on effect size:
1. $$M_0$$, A Point Null Model: $$\delta=0$$
2. $$M_1$$, A ROPE Model: $$\delta \sim \mbox{Unif}(-.25,.25)$$
3. $$M_2$$, A Positive Model: $$\delta \sim \mbox{Gamma(3,2.5)}$$
4. $$M_3$$, A Negative Model: $$-\delta \sim \mbox{Gamma(3,2.5)}$$
Here are these four models expressed graphically as distributions:

I picked these four models, but you can pick as many ones as you wish. For example, you can include a normal if you wish.

Oh, let's look at some data.  Suppose the observed effect size is .35 for an N of 60.

### Going Transitive

Bayes factors are the comparison between two models.  Hence we would like to compute the Bayes factors between any of these models.  Let $$B_{ij}$$ be the comparison between the ith and jth model.  We want a Table like this:

 $$B_{00}$$ $$B_{01}$$ $$B_{02}$$ $$B_{03}$$ $$B_{10}$$ $$B_{11}$$ $$B_{12}$$ $$B_{13}$$ $$B_{20}$$ $$B_{21}$$ $$B_{22}$$ $$B_{23}$$ $$B_{30}$$ $$B_{31}$$ $$B_{32}$$ $$B_{33}$$

Off the bat, we know the Bayes factor between a model and itself is 1 and that $$B_{ij} = 1/B_{ji}$$. So we only need to worry about the lower corner.

 1 $$B_{10}$$ 1 $$B_{20}$$ $$B_{21}$$ 1 $$B_{30}$$ $$B_{31}$$ $$B_{32}$$ 1

We can use the code below, from the previous post to figure out the null vs. all the other models.

$B_{10} = 4.9, \quad B_{20} = 4.2, \quad B_{30} = .0009$

Here we see that the point null is not as attractive or the ROPE null or the positive model. It is more attractive, however, than the negative model.

Suppose, however, that you are most interested in the ROPE null and its comparison to the positive and negative model. The missing Bayes factors are $$B_{12}$$, $$B_{13}$$, and $$B_{23}$$.

The key application of transitivity is as follows:

$B_{ij} = B_{ik} \times B_{kj}.$

So, we can compute $$B_{12}$$ as follows: $$B_{12} = B_{10} \times B_{02} = B_{10}/B_{20} = 4.9/4.2 = 1.2$$.

The other two Bayes factors are computed likewise: $$B_{13} = 5444$$ and $$B_{23} = 4667$$

So what have we learned. Clearly, if you were pressed to choose a direction, it is in the positive direction. That said, the evidence for a positive effect is slight when compared to a ROPE null.

### Snippets of R Code

#First, Define Your Models as a List
#lo, lower bound of support
#hi, upper bound of support
#fun, density function

#here are Models M1, M2, M3
#add or change here for your models

mod1=list(lo=-.25,hi=.25,fun=function(x,lo,hi) dunif(x,lo,hi))
mod2=list(lo=0,hi=Inf,fun=function(x,lo,hi) dgamma(x,shape=3,rate=2.5))
mod3=list(lo=-Inf,hi=0,fun=function(x,lo,hi) dgamma(-x,shape=3,rate=2.5))

#note, we dont need to specify the point null, it is built into the code

#Lets make sure the densities are proper, here is a function to do so:

normalize=function(mod) return(c(mod,K=1/integrate(mod$fun,lower=mod$lo,upper=mod$hi,lo=mod$lo,hi=mod$hi)$value))

#and now we normalize the three models
mod1=normalize(mod1)
mod2=normalize(mod2)
mod3=normalize(mod3)

#Observed Data
es=.35
N=60

#Here is the key function that computes the Bayes factor between a model and the point null
BF.mod.0=function(mod,es,N)
{
f= function(delta) mod$fun(delta,mod$lo,mod$hi)*mod$K
pred.null=dt(sqrt(N)*es,N-1)
altPredIntegrand=function(delta,es,N)
dt(sqrt(N)*es,N-1,sqrt(N)*delta)*f(delta)
pred.alt=
integrate(altPredIntegrand,lower=mod$lo,upper=mod$hi,es=es,N=N)\$value
return(pred.alt/pred.null)
}

B10=BF.mod.0(mod1,es,N)
B20=BF.mod.0(mod2,es,N)
B30=BF.mod.0(mod3,es,N)

print(paste("B10=",B10,"   B20=",B20,"   B30=",B30))

B12=B10/B20
B13=B10/B30
B23=B20/B30

print(paste("B12=",B12,"   B13=",B13,"   B23=",B23))

Matt Williams said...

Hi Jeff,

I think this is a neat post: Computing Bayes Factors for comparing more plausible models sounds like a better idea than focusing on a point null. And it's great that you've shown how to do this.

But to expand on a question I asked you on Twitter:

The BFs alone don't directly lead to conclusions about which *model* is actually most probable. For that we need posterior probabilities.

But finding the posterior probabilities require us to define the prior probability that each model is correct. We presumably wouldn't want to just assume that each model is equally plausible and define prior probability = 0.25 for each of the four models: That would lead to a rather strange and very informative prior probability distribution (sort of a hill plus tower plus radio antenna shape in the case of these four models!)

We could make a more considered decision about how much prior probability to place on each of the four models based on existing knowledge. And use that to convert the Bayes Factors to a posterior probability distribution that tells us the posterior probability that each model is correct.

But if we're going to go to the trouble of specifying priors, estimating models for the data, and calculating a posterior probability distribution... Why not just skip straight to Bayesian estimation, and simply look at the proportion of the posterior draws that fall in each interval? (Or that fall exactly on an effect size of zero, in the case of the point null?)

I.e., What does the Bayes Factor approach add that you can't achieve via Bayesian estimation?

One advantage I see is that it may make it a bit easier to deal with priors that include a point mass on zero, but I'm wondering if there are other advantages that lead you to be more enthusiastic about this approach? :)

Jeff Rouder said...

Hi Matt, Thanks for writing and kind words.

I must admit, I am partial to the point null. I like it because it has solid theoretical meaning---it denotes an invariance. I think certain invariances, even if they do not hold exactly, are exceedingly useful. For example, the Earth doesn't follow an ellipse around the sun exactly as its orbit is perturbed ever so slightly by the moon. Yet, the Kepler Laws are a monumental achievement.

Also, I can appreciate an emphasis on posterior odds. I prefer to report BFs and let people multiply them by whatever prior odds they wish. The BFs are the evidence from the data, or how beliefs should be updated in light of data. If I wish to provide additional guidance, I will suggest prior odds, but by reporting BFs I leave the reader free to interpret the evidence as they wish. I am not wed to making decisions for myself or others; doing so to me is akin to asking how bananas is a lot of bananas. Why make a decision when we can just report the number of bananas at hand.

There is no real difference between BF and estimation; I view them as united. Consider a spike-and-slab model on effect size with mass on zero and density over a continuum. There are three prior settings: the prior mass on zero (the spike), and the prior center and dispersion of the slab. The spike-and-slab form is conjugate, so the posterior is also a spike-and-slab with updated values of the mass of the point, and the center and dispersion of the slab. So this posterior is estimate. The ratio of posterior spike mass to prior spike mass is also the Bayes factor.

I'll write a post about it one day.